this is bbc news. the headlines: the israeli military says about 300,000 palestinians have left the city of rafah since it ordered them to evacuate on monday. but the un warns they're moving to an area, which lacks basic infrastructure. more than 10,000 people protest israel's involvement in the eurovision song contest in malmo, sweden, ahead of tonight's grand final. the netherlands is out of the eurovision song contest, after the dutch singer joost klein is disqualified. police are investigating a complaint made against the singer. russia says it's captured five settlements in the northeastern ukrainian region of kharkiv, since it sent troops over the border there on friday. ukraine disputes the claim.

now on bbc news: newscast: no interest to cut rates yet! i think it does because itjust taps into the thing that, perhaps often, with the various rows and elections and staff can occasionally cloud what we as journalists know and the political parties who are aware there is a general election coming

which is the biggest issue by a mile when they do their focus groups with voters or they were out knocking the doors. this is to state the obvious but it cannot be stated often enough, the biggest issue is the cost of living. ultimately, the economy, vitality or otherwise of the economy and how do people measure that? they do not measure it in gdp is interest rates, they measure it and how well off or not you feel and that is the big, big topic. you feel and that is the big, big toic. . , ., ., topic. that is the politics of it. i not a topic. that is the politics of it. i got a little _ topic. that is the politics of it. i got a little insight _ topic. that is the politics of it. i got a little insight into - topic. that is the politics of it. i got a little insight into the - got a little insight into the economic summit while chris was making his way here. slightly more slowly than we were expecting because i caught up with... i got lost. i'm because i caught up with... i got last i'm sorry — because i caught up with. .. i got lost. i'm sorry to reveal- because i caught up with... i got lost. i'm sorry to reveal your - lost. i'm sorry to revealyour movements. _ lost. i'm sorry to revealyour movements. i— lost. i'm sorry to revealyour movements. i caught - lost. i'm sorry to revealyour movements. i caught up - lost. i'm sorry to revealyour| movements. i caught up with lost. i'm sorry to reveal your - movements. i caught up with the bbc chief economic correspondent and the former chief economist for the bank of england and now chief executive of england and now chief executive of the royal society of arts. hello.

are low. thank you for having me back _ are low. thank you for having me back. ~ . ., are low. thank you for having me back. ~ _, . ~ are low. thank you for having me back. ~ . .,~ back. welcome back, too. we make lovel to back. welcome back, too. we make lovely to be — back. welcome back, too. we make lovely to be here. _ back. welcome back, too. we make lovely to be here. journalist - back. welcome back, too. we make lovely to be here. journalist like - lovely to be here. journalist like things when they are dramatic. things are changing. interest rates did not change. does that mean it was boring? it did not change. does that mean it was boring?— was boring? it is not boring. 86 ”aes was boring? it is not boring. 86 “aes of was boring? it is not boring. 86 pages of fine — was boring? it is not boring. 86 pages of fine print. _ was boring? it is not boring. 86 pages of fine print. how - was boring? it is not boring. 86 pages of fine print. how can - was boring? it is not boring. 86 pages of fine print. how can it i was boring? it is not boring. 86 i pages of fine print. how can it be boring? _ pages of fine print. how can it be boring? people remortgaging this yeah _ boring? people remortgaging this year. they all want what is going on with interest rates. inching closer. we are _ with interest rates. inching closer. we are getting there. if you believe the bank— we are getting there. if you believe the bank of england, they say we are turning _ the bank of england, they say we are turning the _ the bank of england, they say we are turning the corner. what the bank of england, they say we are turning the corner.— turning the corner. what does he mean? what _ turning the corner. what does he mean? what turn _ turning the corner. what does he mean? what turn a _ turning the corner. what does he mean? what turn a happy -- - turning the corner. what does he i mean? what turn a happy -- mccaw turning the corner. what does he - mean? what turn a happy -- mccaw and mean? what turn a happy —— mccaw and how we turn? if you stick around for a few more hours we should get confirmation short lived recession and on top of that, imminently, we should hear it as back down to the 2% target and the question comes, why aren't we cutting interest rates? ., ,., why aren't we cutting interest rates? ., , ., , ., ., rates? there are some people who are 'ust not rates? there are some people who are just not sure — rates? there are some people who are just not sure it — rates? there are some people who are just not sure it is _ rates? there are some people who are just not sure it is the _ rates? there are some people who are just not sure it is the case _ rates? there are some people who are just not sure it is the case but -

rates? there are some people who are just not sure it is the case but i'm - just not sure it is the case but i'm sure _ just not sure it is the case but i'm sure andy— just not sure it is the case but i'm sure andy has got all sorts of interesting views on that one. nine eo - le interesting views on that one. nine --eole on interesting views on that one. nine peeple on the _ interesting views on that one. ii ie: people on the monetary policy committee. last time around one person was in favour of a rate cut was at this time around two people were in favour of a rate cut. how would you have voted? we met i would have been cutting from some way back. start of the year. where would interest rates be it now? i back. start of the year. where would interest rates be it now?— interest rates be it now? i probably would have — interest rates be it now? i probably would have done _ interest rates be it now? i probably would have done a _ interest rates be it now? i probably would have done a couple. - interest rates be it now? i probably would have done a couple. four - interest rates be it now? i probably| would have done a couple. four and three _ would have done a couple. four and three quarters— would have done a couple. four and three quarters of— would have done a couple. four and three quarters of something - would have done a couple. four and three quarters of something by - would have done a couple. four andl three quarters of something by now. a couple _ three quarters of something by now. a couple in — three quarters of something by now. a couple in i— three quarters of something by now. a couple in lam _ three quarters of something by now. a couple in. i am fearful— three quarters of something by now. a couple in. i am fearful that, - a couple in. i am fearful that, know. — a couple in. i am fearful that, know. we _ a couple in. i am fearful that, know. we are _ a couple in. i am fearful that, know, we are going _ a couple in. i am fearful that, know, we are going to - a couple in. i am fearful that, know, we are going to have . a couple in. i am fearful that, know, we are going to have a| a couple in. i am fearful that, - know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric— know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric version _ know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric version of _ know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric version of 2021. - know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric version of 2021. in - know, we are going to have a sort of symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 l symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank— symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank was — symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank was six _ symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank was six months _ symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank was six months too - symmetric version of 2021. in 2021 the bank was six months too late i symmetric version of 2021. in 2021| the bank was six months too late in raising _ the bank was six months too late in raising rates— the bank was six months too late in raising rates when _ the bank was six months too late in raising rates when inflation - the bank was six months too late in raising rates when inflation picked i raising rates when inflation picked up raising rates when inflation picked up and _ raising rates when inflation picked up and i_ raising rates when inflation picked up and i think— raising rates when inflation picked up and i think this _ raising rates when inflation picked up and i think this time _ raising rates when inflation picked up and i think this time it - raising rates when inflation picked up and i think this time it risks - up and i think this time it risks being — up and i think this time it risks being six— up and i think this time it risks being six months— up and i think this time it risks being six months too - up and i think this time it risks being six months too late - up and i think this time it risks being six months too late in i up and i think this time it risks . being six months too late in going back down— being six months too late in going back down again _ being six months too late in going back down again as _ being six months too late in going back down again as inflation - being six months too late in going back down again as inflation goali being six months too late in going i back down again as inflation goal so i would _ back down again as inflation goal so i would have — back down again as inflation goal so i would have been— back down again as inflation goal so i would have been on— back down again as inflation goal so i would have been on my— back down again as inflation goal so i would have been on my bike - back down again as inflation goal so i would have been on my bike startl i would have been on my bike start of the _ i would have been on my bike start of the year — i would have been on my bike start of the year-— of the year. what is the structural thin that of the year. what is the structural thing that means _ of the year. what is the structural thing that means the _ of the year. what is the structural thing that means the bank - of the year. what is the structural thing that means the bank of - of the year. what is the structural - thing that means the bank of england is going to make that mistake again?

we are all prisoners of history fighting — we are all prisoners of history fighting the _ we are all prisoners of history fighting the last _ we are all prisoners of history fighting the last war— we are all prisoners of history fighting the last war and - we are all prisoners of history fighting the last war and i- fighting the last war and i understand _ fighting the last war and i understand the _ fighting the last war and i understand the concern . fighting the last war and i. understand the concern with fighting the last war and i- understand the concern with the inflationary— understand the concern with the inflationary kit _ understand the concern with the inflationary kit having _ understand the concern with the inflationary kit having got - understand the concern with the inflationary kit having got out i understand the concern with the inflationary kit having got out of| inflationary kit having got out of the bag — inflationary kit having got out of the bag but _ inflationary kit having got out of the bag but they— inflationary kit having got out of the bag but they want _ inflationary kit having got out of the bag but they want to - inflationary kit having got out of the bag but they want to be - inflationary kit having got out of- the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally— the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure — the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure that _ the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure that it _ the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure that it is _ the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure that it is back- the bag but they want to be doubly, tribally sure that it is back in- tribally sure that it is back in before — tribally sure that it is back in before cutting _ tribally sure that it is back in before cutting rates- tribally sure that it is back in before cutting rates but, - tribally sure that it is back in- before cutting rates but, actually, the corner— before cutting rates but, actually, the corner on— before cutting rates but, actually, the corner on inflation— before cutting rates but, actually, the corner on inflation was - the corner on inflation was decisively— the corner on inflation was decisively turned - the corner on inflation was decisively turned the - the corner on inflation was decisively turned the start| the corner on inflation was . decisively turned the start of the corner on inflation was - decisively turned the start of the year _ decisively turned the start of the year were — decisively turned the start of the year were going _ decisively turned the start of the year. were going to _ decisively turned the start of the year. were going to find - decisively turned the start of the i year. were going to find probably inflation — year. were going to find probably inflation below— year. were going to find probably inflation below target. _ year. were going to find probably inflation below target. and - year. were going to find probably inflation below target. and the i inflation below target. and the economy— inflation below target. and the economy still, _ inflation below target. and the economy still, you _ inflation below target. and the economy still, you know, - inflation below target. and the - economy still, you know, stumbling sideways, _ economy still, you know, stumbling sideways, really~ _ economy still, you know, stumbling sideways, really. whatever- economy still, you know, stumbling sideways, really. whatever comes i economy still, you know, stumblingl sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp _ sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp number _ sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp number. and _ sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp number. and that— sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp number. and that is- sideways, really. whatever comes of the gdp number. and that is a - sideways, really. whatever comes of| the gdp number. and that is a recipe for cutting, _ the gdp number. and that is a recipe for cutting, hot — the gdp number. and that is a recipe for cutting, not holding. _ the gdp number. and that is a recipe for cutting, not holding. but- the gdp number. and that is a recipe for cutting, not holding. but i- for cutting, not holding. but i think— for cutting, not holding. but i think we've _ for cutting, not holding. but i think we've been _ for cutting, not holding. but i think we've been in _ for cutting, not holding. but i think we've been in touch - for cutting, not holding. but ii think we've been in touch slow for cutting, not holding. but i- think we've been in touch slow in lroth— think we've been in touch slow in both directions. _ think we've been in touch slow in both directions.— think we've been in touch slow in both directions. what are economist doinu on both directions. what are economist doing on the — both directions. what are economist doing on the other _ both directions. what are economist doing on the other hand? _ both directions. what are economist doing on the other hand? what - both directions. what are economist doing on the other hand? what is i both directions. what are economistj doing on the other hand? what is on the other hand?— the other hand? welcome you got those seven _ the other hand? welcome you got those seven people _ the other hand? welcome you got those seven people saying, - the other hand? welcome you got those seven people saying, hang l the other hand? welcome you got l those seven people saying, hang on the other hand? welcome you got - those seven people saying, hang on a minute _ those seven people saying, hang on a minute. there are still those risks out there — minute. there are still those risks out there on— minute. there are still those risks out there on the horizon. inflation fuelled _ out there on the horizon. inflation fuelled by— out there on the horizon. inflation fuelled by spending a large lead.

that is— fuelled by spending a large lead. that is at— fuelled by spending a large lead. that is at 6%, isn't it?— that is at 6%, isn't it? weight inflation higher _ that is at 6%, isn't it? weight inflation higher than - that is at 6%, isn't it? weight inflation higher than some - that is at 6%, isn't it? weight i inflation higher than some would like to— inflation higher than some would like to see but outpacing inflation for a _ like to see but outpacing inflation for a lot— like to see but outpacing inflation for a lot of— like to see but outpacing inflation for a lot of people now which is a bil for a lot of people now which is a big relief— for a lot of people now which is a big relief but it is really curious because — big relief but it is really curious because looking at that voting record. — because looking at that voting record, and i was thinking at this today, _ record, and i was thinking at this today, we — record, and i was thinking at this today, we are always kind of thinking _ today, we are always kind of thinking that there are insiders at the bank— thinking that there are insiders at the bank of the panel and the external— the bank of the panel and the external members and you always think— external members and you always think of— external members and you always think of those internal members as moving _ think of those internal members as moving as — think of those internal members as moving as a — think of those internal members as moving as a pack and then we saw one breakaway— moving as a pack and then we saw one breakaway today and vote for a cut. how usually is that? it is breakaway today and vote for a cut. how usually is that?— how usually is that? it is more ical how usually is that? it is more typical that — how usually is that? it is more typical that insiders _ how usually is that? it is more typical that insiders vote - how usually is that? it is more i typical that insiders vote together rather— typical that insiders vote together rather than — typical that insiders vote together ratherthan apart, _ typical that insiders vote together rather than apart, that _ typical that insiders vote together rather than apart, that is - typical that insiders vote together rather than apart, that is true. . typical that insiders vote togetherl rather than apart, that is true. but it is not— rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a — rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a question. _ rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a question. when- rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a question. when i- rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a question. when i was. rather than apart, that is true. but it is not a question. when i was on the committee _ it is not a question. when i was on the committee back— it is not a question. when i was on the committee back in— it is not a question. when i was on the committee back in 2021, - it is not a question. when i was on the committee back in 2021, that. the committee back in 2021, that period. _ the committee back in 2021, that period. i— the committee back in 2021, that period. iwas— the committee back in 2021, that period, i was the _ the committee back in 2021, that period, i was the one _ the committee back in 2021, that period, i was the one outside - the committee back in 2021, that period, i was the one outside ofi period, i was the one outside of voting _ period, i was the one outside of voting for— period, i was the one outside of voting for rate _ period, i was the one outside of voting for rate rises _ period, i was the one outside of voting for rate rises and - period, i was the one outside of voting for rate rises and the - period, i was the one outside of. voting for rate rises and the eight others _ voting for rate rises and the eight others were — voting for rate rises and the eight others were voting _ voting for rate rises and the eight others were voting to _ voting for rate rises and the eight others were voting to stick- voting for rate rises and the eight others were voting to stick so - voting for rate rises and the eight others were voting to stick so it l voting for rate rises and the eight| others were voting to stick so it is not out _ others were voting to stick so it is not out of— others were voting to stick so it is not out of the _ others were voting to stick so it is not out of the question, _ others were voting to stick so it is not out of the question, it - others were voting to stick so it is not out of the question, it has - not out of the question, it has happened _ not out of the question, it has happened before. _ not out of the question, it has happened before.— not out of the question, it has hauened before. ~ . , ., ,, happened before. what is happening with mortgage _ happened before. what is happening with mortgage rates? _ happened before. what is happening with mortgage rates? reading - happened before. what is happening with mortgage rates? reading my i with mortgage rates? reading my financial pages this morning i could see that some mortgages for some time buyers were going back to 5% and we thought they had come down from that so what is going on there.

we saw some in the markets going oh, my goodness, they're having a wobble live in _ my goodness, they're having a wobble live in the _ my goodness, they're having a wobble live in the us and if they are delaying _ live in the us and if they are delaying there, we are delaying here so we _ delaying there, we are delaying here so we saw— delaying there, we are delaying here so we saw that it is great, actually, _ so we saw that it is great, actually, and expectations between some _ actually, and expectations between some in— actually, and expectations between some in the financial markets and economists are saying evidence suggest — economists are saying evidence suggest that our fundamentals mean we should _ suggest that our fundamentals mean we should be cutting pretty soon. people _ we should be cutting pretty soon. people in — we should be cutting pretty soon. people in the market is going, no, they're _ people in the market is going, no, they're doing that over there therefore wait a bit. mortgage rates are tied to is why you saw them sort of bubbling — are tied to is why you saw them sort of bubbling up a little bit and that is why— of bubbling up a little bit and that is why we — of bubbling up a little bit and that is why we are seeing the pain that borrowers — is why we are seeing the pain that borrowers are going through the dub is fascinating because we all know all that— is fascinating because we all know all that turning the corner and coming — all that turning the corner and coming up to the selection, how are people _ coming up to the selection, how are people going to feel and i was talking — people going to feel and i was talking to someone and his take was this is— talking to someone and his take was this is the _ talking to someone and his take was this is the government's fault was that the _ this is the government's fault was that the government is letting the bank of— that the government is letting the bank of england put up interest rates _ bank of england put up interest rates. they put us up in covid and the energy—

rates. they put us up in covid and the energy prices, which raises the question— the energy prices, which raises the question why they're not doing it now _ question why they're not doing it now. ., , , ., , question why they're not doing it now. . , , ., ., . now. that person is not not correct. politically they _ now. that person is not not correct. politically they feel _ now. that person is not not correct. politically they feel how _ now. that person is not not correct. politically they feel how they - now. that person is not not correct. politically they feel how they feel i politically they feel how they feel but what would you say to that voter, andy? i but what would you say to that voter. andy?— but what would you say to that voter, and ? ., , ., ., voter, andy? i would explain that sto to voter, andy? i would explain that story to them- — voter, andy? i would explain that story to them. you _ voter, andy? i would explain that story to them. you know, - voter, andy? i would explain that story to them. you know, we - voter, andy? i would explain that| story to them. you know, we have gone _ story to them. you know, we have gone through _ story to them. you know, we have gone through what _ story to them. you know, we have gone through what a _ story to them. you know, we have gone through what a couple - story to them. you know, we have gone through what a couple of- story to them. you know, we have l gone through what a couple of years now of— gone through what a couple of years now of the _ gone through what a couple of years now of the economy _ gone through what a couple of years now of the economy crabbing - now of the economy crabbing sideways _ now of the economy crabbing sideways. the _ now of the economy crabbing sideways. the surprising - now of the economy crabbing . sideways. the surprising thing, actually, — sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is— sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that _ sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that it _ sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that it did _ sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that it did not- sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that it did not do. sideways. the surprising thing, actually, is that it did not do ai actually, is that it did not do a lot worse _ actually, is that it did not do a lot worse than _ actually, is that it did not do a lot worse than that. _ actually, is that it did not do a lot worse than that. we - actually, is that it did not do a lot worse than that. we have i actually, is that it did not do a - lot worse than that. we have seen a massive _ lot worse than that. we have seen a massive squeeze _ lot worse than that. we have seen a massive squeeze on— lot worse than that. we have seen a massive squeeze on pupils - lot worse than that. we have seen a massive squeeze on pupils pay- massive squeeze on pupils pay packets — massive squeeze on pupils pay packets as _ massive squeeze on pupils pay packets as the _ massive squeeze on pupils pay packets as the result _ massive squeeze on pupils pay packets as the result of- massive squeeze on pupils pay. packets as the result of inflation. expected — packets as the result of inflation. expected the _ packets as the result of inflation. expected the economy _ packets as the result of inflation. expected the economy to - packets as the result of inflation. expected the economy to be - expected the economy to be contracting _ expected the economy to be contracting sharply- expected the economy to be contracting sharply and - expected the economy to be contracting sharply and for. expected the economy to be - contracting sharply and for spending to be contracting _ contracting sharply and for spending to be contracting sharply— contracting sharply and for spending to be contracting sharply and - contracting sharply and for spending to be contracting sharply and it- to be contracting sharply and it would — to be contracting sharply and it would have _ to be contracting sharply and it would have done _ to be contracting sharply and it would have done where - to be contracting sharply and it would have done where it - to be contracting sharply and it would have done where it not i to be contracting sharply and it. would have done where it not for to be contracting sharply and it- would have done where it not for two things. _ would have done where it not for two things. won — would have done where it not for two things. won the — would have done where it not for two things, won the support _ would have done where it not for two things, won the support from - would have done where it not for two things, won the support from the - things, won the support from the government, _ things, won the support from the government, to _ things, won the support from the government, to households- things, won the support from the government, to households andl government, to households and businesses. _ government, to households and businesses, that— government, to households and businesses, that support - government, to households and businesses, that support has i government, to households and . businesses, that support has been the second — businesses, that support has been the second thing _ businesses, that support has been the second thing is— businesses, that support has been the second thing is households - the second thing is households running — the second thing is households running down _ the second thing is households running down their— the second thing is households running down their savings. . the second thing is households running down their savings. to| running down their savings. to protect— running down their savings. to protect their _ running down their savings. to protect their spending - running down their savings. to protect their spending in - running down their savings. to protect their spending in the l running down their savings. to . protect their spending in the face of contracting _ protect their spending in the face of contracting incomes. - protect their spending in the face of contracting incomes. so - protect their spending in the face of contracting incomes. so we . protect their spending in the face - of contracting incomes. so we cannot be an— of contracting incomes. so we cannot be an endless — of contracting incomes. so we cannot be an endless life—support _ of contracting incomes. so we cannot be an endless life—support mode. - of contracting incomes. so we cannot be an endless life—support mode. i. be an endless life—support mode. i think— be an endless life—support mode. i think maybe — be an endless life—support mode. i think maybe where _ be an endless life—support mode. i think maybe where the _ be an endless life—support mode. i. think maybe where the government, and now— think maybe where the government, and now with — think maybe where the government, and now with inflation _ think maybe where the government,

and now with inflation having - think maybe where the government, and now with inflation having come i and now with inflation having come back, _ and now with inflation having come back, mentioning _ and now with inflation having come back, mentioning real— and now with inflation having come back, mentioning real pay, - and now with inflation having comel back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now— back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now picking — back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now picking up _ back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now picking up. that _ back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now picking up. that support- back, mentioning real pay, inflation is now picking up. that support is. is now picking up. that support is not needed _ is now picking up. that support is not needed. what— is now picking up. that support is not needed. what we _ is now picking up. that support is not needed. what we do- is now picking up. that support is not needed. what we do need, ii not needed. what we do need, i think. _ not needed. what we do need, i think. is— not needed. what we do need, i think. is to _ not needed. what we do need, i think, is to reduce _ not needed. what we do need, i think, is to reduce the _ not needed. what we do need, i| think, is to reduce the restrictive stance _ think, is to reduce the restrictive stance of— think, is to reduce the restrictive stance of monetary— think, is to reduce the restrictive stance of monetary policy. - think, is to reduce the restrictive . stance of monetary policy. because, i’i l ht stance of monetary policy. because, right now. _ stance of monetary policy. because, right now. though— stance of monetary policy. because, right now, though the _ stance of monetary policy. because, right now, though the economy- stance of monetary policy. because, right now, though the economy mayj stance of monetary policy. because, i right now, though the economy may be starting _ right now, though the economy may be starting to— right now, though the economy may be starting to edge — right now, though the economy may be starting to edge up. _ right now, though the economy may be starting to edge up, it _ right now, though the economy may be starting to edge up, it is _ right now, though the economy may be starting to edge up, it is still— starting to edge up, it is still suhpar— starting to edge up, it is still suhpar growth _ starting to edge up, it is still subpar growth on _ starting to edge up, it is still subpar growth on any - starting to edge up, it is still subpar growth on any metric| subpar growth on any metric imaginable _ dharshini, just kind of the basics here of... if you are watching, about to either remortgage or get your first mortgage and you are watching the news to see what the bank of england does about interest rates, what actually is the precise link between the bank rate and what the bank would say to person x buying their house?

you mean what is the link between the mortgage rate and what the bank of england is up to? _ yes, if they cut rates in a couple of months' time, does that mean the rate on your mortgage will go down? yes, but in the meantime, if they are expected to cut rates sooner than previously thought, which is the case now, and it does take a bit of time, you are likely to see those rates starting to drift down. which of course is very good news for those people, and we still have got, we reckon, about a million households left to remortgage over the course of this year. and we should not forget those first—time buyers who are sitting on their hands right now thinking, are things going to get better? and also, there is buy to let landlords as well and renters, all those people who are sitting out there, anxiously awaiting. we should see some movement in the coming weeks, even if we don't see the bank of england doing anything for a month or two. how much depends on the bank. right, andy, you did a speech at the rsa, the organisation of which you are the chief exec now, on wednesday night.

lots of ideas in it but the main one was, we arejust being a bit, like, we are not being brave enough, all of us, whether we go and get a newjob, let alone set up a new company. i think that's right, adam. that was the gist of the story. glad i read that speech right! the world is a risky place, let's be clear. and an instinctive response to risk is to hunker down. but we know if everyone hunkers down and takes no risk, then nothing entrepreneurial happens and the result is the sort of soggy growth picture we have had for the better part of the 15 years and counting. we have right now, look at what government is doing, what companies are doing what financial firms are doing. everyone is shying away from bearing risk, from making those investments that we know are the wellspring of growth tomorrow. 100 years ago, john maynard keynes, the famous economist, spoke about the paradox of thrift, right?

it is a paradox because thrift we think of being a good thing. but of course if everyone is thrifty and saves, no one is spending, and the result is, collectively, calamitous. we have a bit of that going on right now. the world is a risky place, let's hunker down, and the result is a bad situation made worse. what i thought was so intriguing, i totally see that argument when it comes to business and innovation and research and development, and you have got to spend some cash to discover the new wonder drug and maybe it won't be a wonder drug after all, but the fact you are saying that kind of everyone should be doing it. you weren't instructing, telling people to quit theirjobs today but there was a bit of that. like people need to get used to the idea that if they want a pay rise, maybe they should not ask their boss for a pay rise but maybe they should quit and go and get a job somewhere else. that is the way to get a pay rise. and we have lost that spirit. i mean, you are speaking to someone who has only moved job once so i know the fastest way to a pay

rise is not to stick, it is to twist, and that's true. but in terms of taking the lead on that, adam and dharshini, it is for government. that is also what keynes said 100 years ago. as the agent best able to bear risk, as the agent with the longest horizons, it is for them to step up and to make those investments in ways that would then encourage others in the private sector to follow suit. and that's sorely what we need now, and that's what the current fiscal rules are preventing government from doing. yeah. so this idea that debt has to be falling by the end of a five—year kind of rolling period, which always strikes me as a terrible way to manage your own finances... laughter ..but it seems to be kind of the accepted way for governments. i mean, what's the better set of... without getting too nerdy, what's kind of like a better set of fiscal rules that would help a future government get things revved up again? well, a couple of things, really. i mean, one would be five years is far too short for any investment

that's big and transformational for the uk. and dear heavens, we need investment that's big and transformational for the uk. you know, both hs2 for the government, and the green prosperity plan for labour, were casualties, thin—sliced by dint of those rules. yeah, the 28 billion that became less. so let's stretch the horizons beyond five years. that's arbitrary and too short. but most importantly, not all borrowing is created equally. borrowing that's investment for tomorrow, that creates assets. schools or hospitals or roads or railways should be recorded and recognised in how we set our rules. so let's not look atjust debt, but the assets that government creates as well — what's sometimes called net worth. and i get that people are still a bit scared by the mini—budget and what that did to bond markets. but the truth is that what financial markets want first and foremost from the uk is a good growth story,

and if the route to that is government borrowing, they will take that in their stride. but, dharshini, what's interesting about that is thatjeremy hunt's not talking about changing his fiscal rules anytime soon, and rachel reeves has signed up to very, very similar ones. yeah, which i find intriguing because, you know, when you listen to what you're saying and what the economy needs — and we talk about investment, investment, investment, productivity — and you think that that makes sense. but i'm really intrigued by what you're saying about risk. and, you know, as someone who, my memory is ingrained by the idea of covering wall street when it all fell apart in 2006, 2007... because of too much risk. is that when we saw that change in attitude from governments, from the private sector, when we all went, this must never happen again? and has that translated into the way we see everything now and, therefore, we're shying away from opportunities? that's what's happened?

quite so. we are all, and i am still, having been part of it at the time, psychologically scarred by that experience. we know after the great crash of �*29, that had a scarring effect on people's risk appetite and psychologies for a generation. and it's still with us now. it's framed how we think about our fiscal choices. about our regulatory choices, how we think about consumer protection, how we think about corporate governance. and it's done with the best of intentions, of course, it's instinctive to want to mitigate or manage risk, except when it's not. and now is the time for not. we had too much risk then, we have too little risk bearing now. and that's why we need to turn turtle on how we think about our regulation, how we think about our rules, fiscal and more broadly. so basically, i don't know if rachel reeves was in the front row of the speech, but i'm sure if she wasn't, she would have read it. were you hoping that she reads it, hears it and goes, "0h, actually, i need to be a bit bolder

on the economy, i'm being far too cautious here"? well, i think the message is not just for politicians. i think there's messages there for the private sector as well, certainly messages for regulators. and as a regulator in my former life, you know, i'm partly responsible for some of this stuff. right? the rules for banks, the rules for insurers, which i think have been starving british companies of the financial fuel they need to grow, has been part of the problem. it was part of the solution, in a way, in 2009, it's part of the problem now. it's ridiculous that there are more canadian, australian and dutch pensioners investing in british businesses than there are british pensioners investing in british business. that needs to change. it's ridiculous that there's been no net lending to companies by british banks over the past several years. that needs to change. we will not grow unless it changes. so it needs to be broadly based.

it needs to involve finance. it needs to involve companies outside of finance. it needs to involve our government in a national plan for growth and regeneration, because looking for someone else to lead will mean that no—one leads and we remain stuck in the mud, as we have done for now, what, 15 years, we've been stood still. also, i love the bit in your speech when you said, "if i want to cheer myself up, i get as far away as possible from westminster." in other words, you go and hang out with some mayors, some newly—elected mayors, or re—elected mayors. well, the truth is, i mean, despite all i've said, i'm actually strangely optimistic about the uk, because i see huge amounts of potential latent energy in the uk's regions and nations. i visit them a lot now. and there are clusters of brilliant businesses, brilliant universities, brilliant people, scattered across the four corners of the uk. and if they could be given, you know, enabled to become marshals of their own destiny, the uk could fly. so of all the things we might do, empowering — and, indeed, with a bit of money — put the mayor the way of local leaders, we'd have a national growth plan built from the bottom—up, turning those brilliant clusters and institutions into super—clusters. that's what we need. we know how to do it. yeah. it's about execution.

so interesting. dharshini, thank you very much. and, andy, thanks to you, too. thank you, adam. thank you, dharshini. so that's the sort of view from the city. talking of views from the city, why did it take you so long to cover that short distance from there to here? so i got lost. so i've... how long have you lived here, 23 years? something like that, on and off. we moved here in the same year. we did, indeed. in 2001. not been here every year since, but most of them. and, yeah, i got lost. so the thing is, you know, there's the circle line in the middle of the london underground, yellow line for the people who are familiar with london — more familiar than me! and the whole thing about east and west. the whole east and west thing in a circle, particularly when you're on the edge of the circle, where it kind of goes south... anyway, we stood on one platform for quite a while and then realised

we were going the wrong way, or would get on the wrong way if we got on the train, and then went to the other side. so sorry, yeah, i got lost in london about 15 minutes away from where i work. see, we can even make great podcasting content over you getting on the wrong platform. we can find some political significance in it. anyway, talking about political significance, it's the day after natalie elphicke magically morphed from being a conservative mp — and some people say a very right—wing one, whatever that really means — to becoming a new labour mp, although she's not going to fight her seat at the next election. isn't it interesting that that story very quickly went from, whoa, what a political bombshell, to, was this a good idea for labour to sign her up? yeah, and there's a couple of things. there's the thing that always happens with defections, which is that there's a tribal excitement at luring someone from the other side. and then there's some within the tribe who regard it as somehow a bit sort of, i don't know, kind of dirty or discombobulating, or not quite right. because how can you possibly be labour if you were conservative?

but the twist with the natalie elphicke defection, yes, there's some who might point to elements of her politics that they regard as on the right. i think there's other bits that you can point to. the left—right stuff only goes, is only of so much use. and there's some stuff, particularly around housing, that's been her sort of lifelong or adulthood—long professional interest where, actually, her views pretty much, and long have, arguably tessellated with that of the labour party. but crucially is this particular element of her recent back story, really, which is that her ex—husband — former mp for the same seat, who was convicted of sexual assaults — she said in an interview in the sun best part of four years ago that he was attractive and he was attractive to women, and that perhaps that made him an easy target. and that had led some labour mps to be upset, furious, angry at what they saw as victim—blaming. anyway, the reason i was in the city of london was to talk to natalie elphicke, who was at an event there,

and here's what she told me. about that period of my life, it was an incredibly difficult and stressful period, but i do recognise it was much worse for all of those people, all those women who had to give evidence at that time. and so i would like to take the opportunity to apologise to them. will that reassure her new colleagues enough? i think it'll do quite a lot, actually, to take the sting out of it. so i speak to a lot of them privately and they said they hated the kind of language that she'd used, but they said she should have an opportunity to explain it and apologise, and she's apologised. and no doubt in private conversations with plenty of them, she'll seek to explain it in terms of, as she was saying there, how difficult a period in her life it was. and it was quite striking talking to her, actually, it wasn't a normal political conversation. of course it wasn't. you're talking about something deeply, deeply personal.

so i think it will go some way, actually, to doing that. and then the conversation shifts back to policy stuff. now, finally, one of the days when you weren't here, i launched our new marketing campaign. oh, yes, which i got wind of when i was a recipient. when you became in the middle of it, without knowing what it was. yes. and basically, it's because katya adler — who we did brexitcast with — she's got a podcast of her own now called the global story, and it's got a much bigger budget and marketing budget than we could ever dream of. ican imagine. they had a billboard in times square. what? yes. and so i thought, what could we do? what's the newscast version of that? and it actually turned out to be newscasters taking pictures of themselves with our logo, at their own favourite landmarks around the world. so what better way to mark that than by doing a quiz... terrific, terrific. ..to see if you can guess the landmarks? 0h, right. so we're basically now doing marketing for the marketing campaign, which is about a marketing campaign. right. first one, this is mrs active. hello, mrs active. she's very, very active... so there is mrs active with your smartphone and the newscast logo, and something that is either the eiffel tower or the blackpool tower.

and let's, ooh... i'm thinking... all i'll say is mrs active's very well travelled. in a southerly direction. oh, it's got to be paris. correct! i was thinking, i was wondering, ooh... i might have gone blackpool, otherwise. right. this is... oh, look at that! ..daniel. now, hang on a minute. hello, daniel. now, this is this is what i like to see, because this is the north of england. can ijust have a look at this? because i'm thinking, is it dales or is it lakes? it's lakes. and i am thinking it's lakes, yeah, because the hills are bigger than the dales. lake district. beautiful. oh, that's manna from heaven, that is. that was hallin fell, in the lake district. terrific. lovely. well done, daniel. brilliant. have you thought about going into, like, open—source, like satellite photo interpretation? i think you'd have quite a skill for that. i don't know, you've had to nudge me in both directions. right, this is stephen. 0h, hang on a minute.

that can't be stephen. that's got to be theresa may, running through a field of wheat. there is a field of wheat there, but you can't see stephen himself. but there is a famous landmark. is that mount fuji? correct. is it mount fuji? yeah. i thought it was the lake district again and i was like, "no, that's definitely mount fuji". we've made our way to japan. right. this is terrific. this one is from total landscaping, one of the users on discord. thanks for getting in touch, total, if i may use your first name? homemade newscast logo, diy. now, hang on a minute. this is my new area of expertise, because it's the underground in london, but i can't... oh, yeah, it's the london underground, but i can't work out which station because i can't read the sign on the station. it's quite out of the centre of london, i think, that, but i've no idea where. it's pinner. pinner. that's well out. and do you know the political significance recently of pinner tube station? no, no, idon't. susan hall... i wondered if it might be susan hall. ..who was then the tory candidate for mayor, who went on to lose, some might say ungraciously... is that her neck of the woods?

no, it's where she famously lost her 0yster card. oh, yes. and there was the whole question about whether or not she'd been pickpocketed. yes. so you see, you did... you did remember. i was aware of the story. yes. there we go. finally, you must remember... you must remember this. they famously sang. i do remember this, outside the scottish parliament in edinburgh, which is where i first encountered the viral marketing campaign that... and tamsin... and tamsin came up with her, with her... in a plastic wallet, newscast logo. that was shortly after i'd inadvertently made a fool of myself on the 6:00 news. oh, yeah. news goblin. yeah. by being on the telly by accident. yeah. and james cook there, so she got two for the price of one, and friends of the podcast. exactly. brilliant. well done, i think... oh, i didn't keep track of your scores. i think it was full marks. it was pretty good. apart from pinner, you didn't get pinner. i didn't get pinner. and it kind of, you know, a bit vague on the lake district. the good thing about that, though, is hearing from you. we just love hearing whatever you're doing. you don't have to hold up our logo to get in touch with us.

you can get in touch with an observation about the news or about this podcast, or something you want to talk about, or a question you want us to find the answer to, and you can email us anytime. 0k, well, that's how email works! newscast at bbc.co.uk. pinner underground station versus times square. we've won. i mean, sorry, katya. exactly. you know? we've been you in the viral marketing stakes. anyway, chris, thanks for making it here eventually and for dashing across london and eventually going in the right direction. i was glad to turn up in the end. and thank you very much for tuning in to this episode of newscast. we'll be back with another one very soon. bye. bye— bye. newscast. newscast, from the bbc. hello, let's start with the space forecast. there is a very high chance of the sky is being lit up once again by the aurora borealis. perfect conditions for many of us with clear skies, and the advice is to keep watching the sky from late evening onwards. but you need to get your eyes used to that dark sky, because the aurora isn't quite as bright as some of those photographs suggest. this is the probability of seeing the aurora. the reds indicate 90—100% probability. and further south, 50—50. because it will be right above our heads, even people

in the further south area, you might even still see it somewhere along the horizon. here is the forecast, dry for most today, but scattered thunderstorms on the way, some could be torrential. the forecast for the rest of the day and into the second half of the afternoon, some scattered showers, it may be some cracks of thunder in the forecast for the highlands, maybe one or two for the lowlands and southern uplands. but on the whole, a sunny and very warm day for many of us, temperatures in the low to mid 20s in some spots. even coastal areas will see temperatures of around 20 or more. the winds are very light. if you are unlucky you might be under some of the thicker shrouding the north sea coast. this evening, aurora time, not completely clear, so fingers crossed it

won't be too cloudy. the aurora could hang around for a good hour or two, so there is plenty of opportunity to go out again to try to catch a glimpse of that light spectacle. remember, it is not quite so vivid, you have to get used to it. high pressure slips away on a sunday, that has been on top of us giving us giving us the settled weather just in time for the aurora. on sunday we start to see storms developing across western parts of the uk, some will be torrential, the chance of some flash flooding out towards the west. but temperatures tomorrow perhaps as high as 26. bye— bye.

live from london. this is bbc news. the israeli military says about 300,000 palestinians have left the city of rafah since they've been ordered to evacuate on monday. but the un warns they're moving to an area which lacks basic infrastructure. these are the live pictures in malmo, sweden, where more than 10,000 people are protesting over israel's participation in the eurovision song contest. iam i am alive outside the arena in malmo, where in a few hours' time, the grand final of the eurovision song contest will take place. there are protests, controversy and a headache for the european ebu who have organised the event. we will have organised the event. we will have all the latest in a few minutes. nearly 2,000 people have been evacuated from

ukraine's kharkiv region — russia says its forces have captured